How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.