🔗 Share this article

Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|